12
Nov

Bulletproofing Your Ideas: Part 1 – The Quick Screen

As entrepreneurs, we all have great ideas and we love turning them into reality. Unfortunately, most people spend more time justifying why their idea is great rather than questioning whether it is great. Here’s an example:

    1. Have brilliant idea, e.g. Curling Rink Management Software

by Reverend Aviator (cc)

  1. Daydream about becoming the Microsoft of curling
  2. Write business plan about how you will dominate the curling software market
  3. Convince poor souls to jump on board your curling startup
  4. Do an investor road show to raise funds for MyCurlingERP.com

What’s wrong with this picture (besides thinking that curling is just plain wrong)? The problem is that there was never a rigorous process for vetting the idea. This is a missed opportunity because vetting can reveal hidden strengths and weaknesses in ideas.

I use the following quick screen process for evaluating ideas:

  1. Are you an expert in the field? If you aren’t you’re probably overestimating your idea or underestimating the difficulty of executing it.
  2. Does your idea make something 10 times better than the alternative? If your answer is “how am I supposed to measure that?” you’re in trouble already.
  3. Do you understand how the industry makes money? Understanding how people give away things free is not the same thing.
  4. Can you win? Being #17 in an industry sucks.

If you answered NO to all 4 questions it’s a good indication your idea needs major surgery. If you answered NO to some of the questions, it’s time to focus on improving its weaknesses.

photo by Divine Harvester

photo by Divine Harvester (cc)

E.g. if you aren’t an expert in the field take the time to recruit one. Better yet, try to recruit the industry’s best expert. If your value proposition is a combination of ease of use + slightly cheaper + runs on a Mac + is multi-lingual, you’re probably proving your idea is only incrementally better. No one ever switched painkillers because of better taste and they won’t adopt your solution unless the thing they care about really works. Prove that and the UI can be ugly.

Don’t understand how your industry makes money? You probably won’t make any. Before inventing a new revenue model study the revenue models of your competitors and complementors. One tip: if no one is making money in an industry (e.g. curling software) it’s a good sign you won’t either. Finally, seeing a path from your idea to dominating some industry niche is very important. If there are insurmountable barriers to entry or high capital requirements to win, your idea may never get a chance to win. Think about this in advance.

The point of idea screening is not to generate ideas. That’s your job. Screening protects you from your natural tendency to believe that your ideas are great. If they are great, screening will help you prove it.

If you have other ways to screen your ideas feel free to post them.

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